The Potential Economic Impact of Sustained 30% Tariffs on Imports from China
Published on May 13, 2025

After implementation of tariffs of up to 145% on all imports from China, negotiators were able to agree to a temporary reduction to a 30% levy. This rate is planned to be in place for a maximum of 90 days, providing a reprieve as trade talks continue.
The Perryman Group estimates that the cost to the US economy of a sustained 30% tariff on imports from China would include $173.3 billion in annual gross product each year and almost 1.4 million jobs when multiplier effects are considered. In addition to the very large negative impacts on a variety of consumer-oriented segments such as retail trade, US manufacturing sectors such as electronic equipment would be negatively affected.
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