Perryman Economic Forecast Plans | The Perryman Group

Tired of trying to decipher the overload of information out there about where the economy is going? Let us do it for you.

Decades ago, the challenge with economic data was that there wasn't enough of it—at least not unless you were willing to dig through dusty files in university library basements or send a letter to get on a subscription list for a snail mail publication. Now, there's too much information. We used to cringe at kilobytes; now we shrug at terabytes. It's time consuming to wade through just the "good stuff," not to mention the vast array of misinformation and even disinformation.

Business and investment decisions require solid information. Is the US economy going to expand? How will current events affect future growth? What about Texas? What industries are likely to lead the way? Which metropolitan areas are set to grow and which are not? These are the questions we address every day, and we'd like to share our insights with you. Whether you want a quick-to-read summary or a workbook full of detailed information, our forecast has you covered.

All Texas Regions

$ 1,200 / year

Plan includes...

  • All 26 Texas metros, the 24 Texas COG regions, as well as state and national data.
  • Dashboard access to summary statistics covering key indicators and industry projections.
  • An Excel workbook containing historical and projected level values from 2001 to 2050 for key economic indicators as well as industry breakout for gross product and employment.
  • Quarterly updates of the current economic profile and two-year projections for the US, Texas, and major metro areas.

Major Texas Metros

$ 950 / year

Plan includes...

  • The 7 largest Texas metros, the 24 Texas COG regions, as well as state and national data.
  • Dashboard access to summary statistics covering key indicators and industry projections.
  • An Excel workbook containing historical and projected level values from 2001 to 2050 for key economic indicators as well as industry breakout for gross product and employment.
  • Quarterly updates of the current economic profile and two-year projections for the US, Texas, and major metro areas.

Build Your Own

$ 250 / region

Plan includes...

  • Any combination of Texas metros and/or Texas COG regions, as well as state and national data.
  • Dashboard access to summary statistics covering key indicators and industry projections.
  • An Excel workbook containing historical and projected level values from 2001 to 2050 for key economic indicators as well as industry breakout for gross product and employment.
  • Quarterly updates of the current economic profile and two-year projections for the US and Texas.
What is included in the dashboard?

Our dashboards include a wide variety of summary tables, graphs, and statistics along with overview text outlining the general economic situation of the relevant region. The dashboard allows the user to switch between "Current" (present and two-year forecast), "Short-term" (five-year) and "Long-term" projections.

Tables describe the change in key indicators over the selected timespan. Projections of the change in gross product and employment for major industry groups are also described. The dashboard allows subscribers to save desired data to Excel workbooks and download tables to be used as needed.

What are the Key Economic Indicators?

The Key Economic Indicators include the most common measures of business activity.

  • Socioeconomic Indicators:
    • Total Employment (includes Proprietors)
    • Wage & Salary Employment
    • Gross Product
    • Personal Income by Residence
    • Personal Income by Place of Work
    • Labor Productivity
    • Retail Sales
    • Population
    • Residential Building Permits
  • Economic and Price Indices:
    • Implicit Price Deflator
    • Personal Consumption Deflator
    • Consumer Price Index
    • Producer Price Index
    • Industrial Production Index
  • Interest Rates:
    • 3-Month US Treasury Bill
    • 10-Year US Treasury Bond
    • Nationwide Prime Rate
    • Moody Aaa Rating
Can you explain the forecasting process?

The full methodology for the US Multi-Regional Econometric Model is available, along with a glossary of key terms, including indicator and industry definitions.

What is included in the Excel Workbook?

The workbook includes yearly key economic indicator levels for the regions purchased, as well as per-capita values when applicable.

In addition, yearly gross product (in both "nominal" and "real" US dollars) and wage & salary employment levels by industry sector are included for Texas and its regions. The "All Texas Regions" and "Major Texas Metros" packages also include more detailed industry data.

Currently, the yearly data spans from 2001 to 2050.

What are the industry sectors?

Industry sectors are defined using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), a hierarchical classification system of business establishments according to their economic activity. The system consists of 20 industry sectors, listed below with their respective "two-digit" NAICS codes. Each industry sector broken down into subsectors (with "three-digit" NAICS codes), for a total of 99 subsectors.

  • 11: Agriculture
  • 21: Mining
  • 22: Utilities
  • 23: Construction
  • 31-33: Manufacturing
  • 42: Wholesale Trade
  • 44-45: Retail Trade
  • 48-49: Logistics
  • 51: Information
  • 52: Finance and Insurance
  • 53: Real Estate
  • 54: Professional Services
  • 55: Management Services
  • 56: Administrative Services
  • 61: Educational Services
  • 62: Health and Social Services
  • 71: Amusement and Recreation Services
  • 72: Accommodation and Food Services
  • 81: Other Services
  • 92: Government
What are MSAs and COGs?

MSA stands for "Metropolitan Statistical Area." MSAs are occasionally segmented into "Metropolitan Divisions" (MD), as the case with the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA. The composition of these regions is determined by the US Office of Management and Budget and the Census Bureau.

A COG is a "Council of Governments" region. These areas are comprised of counties and are determined by the Texas Association of Regional Councils. Every county in Texas is a member of one (and only one) COG.

Looking for something different?

In addition to the standard packages above, we regularly produce custom forecasts. The firm has a full range of regional forecasting and modeling capabilities, including:

  • Available Geographies:
    • International
    • National
    • Regional
    • State
    • Metropolitan Area
    • County
    • City
    • Zip Code
    • Census Tract
  • Available Indicators:
    • Energy Demand & Supply
    • Real Estate Market Absorption
    • Retail Sales & Taxes
    • Infrastructure Needs
    • Industrial Performance (Manufacturing & Service)
    • Transportation Demand
    • Financial Markets
    • Bond Feasibility
    • Construction Costs
    • Investment Returns
    • Labor Markets
    • Demographics
    • Global Markets & Trade
    • Cost Factors (e.g. Wage Rates, Capital Costs)

If you are interested in these or other specialized projections, please contact us for more information by clicking the button below.

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What are the Major Texas Metros?

The Major Texas Metros are the seven most populous metropolitan statistical areas in Texas:

  • Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA
  • Dallas-Plano-Irving MD
  • El Paso MSA
  • Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine MD
  • Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA
  • McAllen-Edinburg-Mission MSA
  • San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA

In addition, the 12 Comptroller Economic Regions (which cover every county in Texas) are also included in the Major Texas Metros package.