The most recent employment data indicates that the pace of hiring in Texas has slowed. In September, 40,700 net new jobs were added, compared to 111,900 in August. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose and is now higher than the national level. While this slowing is not good news, it was not unexpected.
The most recent US jobs reports indicate significant gains and decreasing unemployment, but the total increase over the past two months is far below losses during March and April. Moreover, the recent increase in COVID-19 infections may cause the recovery to slow. The situation remains challenging and fluid, and the recovery will likely be bumpy.
The Perryman Group's most recent economic projections for the US and Texas incorporate the potential effects of COVID-19. The forecast calls for significant losses this year, but a fairly rapid recovery is expected once the worst virus issues have passed.
The Economist takes a look at the state of affairs in Texas and the US.
Dr. Perryman talks through his projections for the Texas economy in the future.
The comptroller's office has upped the revenue forecast by $500 million, giving lawmakers more money to spend this session.
Dr. Perryman describes some of the reports he uses in his economic forecasts.
Dr. Perryman marks the thirty-third year of his economic outlook conferences, so what's his short-term forecast for Texas?
Gazing out over the next few decades, I see at least three major challenges confronting the US economy. First, we have to overcome the consequences of the lingering effects of the pandemic, including getting inflation under control, dealing with the inevitable fallout that effort will involve, and working through ongoing supply chain disruptions. Second, we must confront the chronic worker shortages. Third, we need to fashion a realistic energy policy which both meets climate goals and provides for future essential resources (more on that another time).