Winter Storm Uri | The Perryman Group

Winter Storm Uri

Estimated Tax Loss Calculator

Paying securitization costs related to Winter Storm Uri has the effect of reducing the resources available for consumer spending and commercial and industrial activity. As a result, economic activity is adversely impacted and local governments lose fiscal revenues.

The purpose of this system is to provide a general approximation of the economic losses to an area and the related fiscal costs to a governmental entity associated with paying securitization costs stemming from Winter Storm Uri. There are several simplifying assumptions involved which will require additional refinement for more formal use.

First, the system is set to measure the costs by industry for a typical urban or rural area in Texas. The analysis reflects detailed measurements of the intensity of electricity and natural gas usage across more than 400 detailed commercial and industrial categories, but the composition and structure will differ in each specific area. Similarly, the algorithm uses typical consumption patterns by urban or rural households.

Second, the system assumes that usage is equally divided between residential and commercial/industrial customer categories. The state total shares are about 51%/49%, but the distribution will obviously differ across geographic areas.

Third, depending on the specific application of the measures, additional adjustments may be required (such as adjusting for the fact that some of the securitized amounts may represent reasonable charges under the circumstances).

Fourth, the direct amounts estimated by CirclesX may require refinement based on area-specific information. Similarly, while the system uses actual tax rates for the relevant taxing authority, it does not reflect the actual composition of the local tax base but rather a general representation of urban or rural activity.

Fifth, depending on the specific claims that are asserted, a portion of the securitized amount may be classified as reasonable in light of the situation and not subject to recovery.

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