The rate on 30-year mortgages has topped 7% for the first time in more than 20 years. The sharp rise from about 3% just a year ago is causing fallout for homebuyers and the housing market. While the current situation is going to be costly from several perspectives, a market crash akin to the Great Recession of 2008 is NOT in our future. Let’s briefly explore.
Despite the importance of its energy, food, and fiber, the Texas economy is increasingly services oriented. This outcome is not surprising given the sophisticated nature of the state's industrial base; it's a pattern common to every highly developed economy. Let's examine past and expected future trends.
What will Texas jobs and the workforce look like in the future? The underlying driver is, of course, patterns in expansion by industry. We recently took a look at this question using our databases and models.
A few years ago, I was asked to name the major events that shaped the Texas we know today. High on the list was the development of Allen's Landing and the Port of Houston during the early days of the Republic and the subsequent efforts at the dawn of the twentieth century to develop a deep-water channel in the area just as the oil industry was emerging. Without this critical infrastructure, Texas could not have become a vital hub of global commerce. I am tempted to say "and the rest is history" – but, in reality, it is also the future.
The European Union (EU) has announced a partial embargo on Russian oil in response to the invasion of Ukraine. By yearend, about 90% of Russian oil import volumes could be affected. It's a major blow to Moscow, which relies on oil and natural gas sales for economic sustainability.
The US Census Bureau recently released the 2020 Census estimated undercount and overcount rates from its Post-Enumeration Survey. While we feared an undercount for Texas, it was even worse than expected.
The recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia is generating questions regarding how important Russia is to the Texas economy, particularly as policies restricting trade and investment interactions are contemplated. The short answer: not very.
Oil prices are touching an altitude not seen since the spike in summer 2008, pushing gasoline prices into uncharted territory and raising other costs in their wake. The situation in Ukraine and efforts by financial markets to predict it are driving the immediate spurt in prices, but even before Russia invaded, prices were trending upward as the global economy rebounded from COVID-19 and demand rose faster than supply.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, and it is impossible to know at this point how it will play out in terms of duration or magnitude. While any such aggression causing loss of life and freedom is first and foremost a humanitarian tragedy, it also brings economic fallout.
The Census Bureau recently released population estimates by state for the period from July 2020 to July 2021. The total US population scarcely changed, but there were seismic regional shifts. Let's take a quick tour.