The US Census Bureau recently released the 2020 Census estimated undercount and overcount rates from its Post-Enumeration Survey. The results indicate that the Texas population was undercounted by 1.92%.
The recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia is generating questions regarding how important Russia is to the Texas economy, particularly as policies restricting trade and investment interactions are implemented or contemplated. While no area can escape the near-term disruptive effects related to the supply chain and inflation, the specific effects on business activity within the state are relatively minor. The Perryman Group recently analyzed patterns in Texas-Russia trade and investment to assess the extent of the linkages and related economic effects.
Every day, thousands of trucks cross the Texas-Mexico border, bringing a variety of goods ranging from fruits and vegetables to electronic equipment. Cross-border supply chains are common, and manufacturing facilities on both sides of the border depend on the efficient flow of products across the border. The recent slowdowns due to additional inspections disrupted these patterns, resulting in not only spoilage of perishable items, but also production delays. Given the strained capacity at the border in normal times, it will be difficult and, in many instances, impossible to “catch up.”
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to exact a major toll in terms of human health and wellbeing, as well as the economy. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have risen recently due to the delta variant, and the spike has caused substantial disruptions. Despite these concerns, there has been massive resistance by some policymakers and individuals around the country to basic protective measures, which is resulting in preventable losses to the economy through reduced employment and decreases in productivity.
Texas has recently seen a sharp upswing in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. This spike has caused substantial disruptions and hardships to families across the state (including many children), compromised safety as schools seek to reopen and address the massive educational gap that has surfaced during the pandemic, and added further strain to an already fragile healthcare complex. Despite these concerns, there has been massive resistance by policymakers to sensible and basic protective measures, such as appropriate masking requirements and measures to encourage higher vaccination rates. In addition to these obvious consequences, this approach is also resulting in preventable losses to the economy through reduced employment and decreases in productivity. The Perryman Group (TPG) has recently quantified these adverse effects.
The United States recently reached a tragic milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic when the number of lives lost reached 500,000. The suffering and hardships imposed by these losses are incalculable and the primary concern, with few Americans not personally affected in some way
The high human cost and loss of life due to COVID-19 is tragic and staggering. Few people have remained untouched by the disease in one way or another, with over 20 million US cases. As of the end of 2020, the coronavirus had contributed to the death of nearly 345,000 people in the United States. While the suffering and hardships imposed by these losses are incalculable and the primary concern, the economic consequences cannot be ignored.
The most recent employment data indicates that the pace of hiring in Texas has slowed. In September, 40,700 net new jobs were added, compared to 111,900 in August. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose and is now higher than the national level. While this slowing is not good news, it was not unexpected.
May and June jobs reports for Texas and the state's largest metropolitan areas were encouraging and reflect the fact that as businesses began to reopen, what was essentially a sound economy before the pandemic responded relatively quickly. Nonetheless, employment remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels. The Perryman Group's latest forecast calls for significant year-over-year losses for 2020, but notable recovery next year. If additional interruptions are required as a result of the recent surge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Texas, the annual declines will escalate.
The most recent US jobs reports indicate significant gains and decreasing unemployment, but the total increase over the past two months is far below losses during March and April. Moreover, the recent increase in COVID-19 infections may cause the recovery to slow. The situation remains challenging and fluid, and the recovery will likely be bumpy.