Dr. Perryman explains the updated Perryman Group forecasts for the economy in the coming year.
As the fiscal year in Texas drew to a close on August 31st, it became apparent that the amount of revenue taken in was almost a billion dollars short of the revised projections.
The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions needed to slow the spread of the virus have caused substantial harm to the economy. Even in the face of significant job losses and output declines, however, the underlying structure is generally sound and long-term prospects remain positive (though the next couple of years will be quite different than what we were expecting before the coronavirus). Looking beyond the immediate horizon, our latest long-term forecasts for job growth in the state's metropolitan areas are on the whole encouraging. Let's take a quick trip around the state.
Measures taken to slow the spread of COVID-19, while necessary, have had substantial negative effects on the Texas economy. In addition to shutting down large segments of the economy, the pandemic has also contributed to a downturn in oil and natural gas. However, the state is well positioned to return to growth once social distancing requirements can be more fully relaxed. The Perryman Group's latest outlook calls for a significant drop in business activity this year, but a return to growth next year (and even later this year).