The Perryman Group's Bordernomics study analyzes the economy of the US-Mexico border region in order to improve understanding of regional dynamics and identify actions which could generate meaningful improvement. The full study provides background information and a summary of current economic conditions, addresses the importance of NAFTA, describes challenges and opportunities faced in the border region, and estimates the business activity and jobs which could be added with enhanced cooperation among the US-Mexico border states.
When NAFTA negotiators wrapped up the latest round of trade talks in Washington, they sounded frustrated and far apart, even pushing back the next round of talks.
The talks that could eventually lead to a renegotiated NAFTA continue in Washington. Dr. Perryman says a lot has changed in the quarter century since the trade pact was agreed to.
Dr. Perryman says we are now in a 90 day window where the White House will confer with Congress for its guidance on renegotiating the NAFTA trade agreement.
Dr. Perryman says President Trump's decision to pull the US out of the TPP and reevaluate NAFTA has upended America's traditional bipartisan trade policy.
President Trump has threatened to impose 5% tariffs on all goods from Mexico on June 10 if Mexico does not take action to slow the number of immigrants at the border. As I am writing, he has vowed to continue to escalate the levies to 25%, Mexico has threatened to retaliate, and Congress has announced that it will stop them with enough votes to override a veto. Who knows what the status will be when you are reading this? Even if the situation is resolved, the threat of such action increases uncertainty and makes it more difficult to finalize a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement. If the tariffs actually go into effect and are maintained, it would cost hundreds of thousands of US jobs.
One of President Trump's first official actions was issuing an Executive Order to withdraw from the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement that would have linked 12 nations in the largest free trade zone to date. As a practical matter, Congress wasn't going to support it in any case, so the Order was only symbolic. It is a genuine mystery to me how we evolved to the point that participating in the world economy is somehow a bad thing to do. That the belief is now present in both major political parties is even more baffling. Let me be very clear from the outset: Trade is good! In fact, trade is essential! We have centuries of history (not to mention some basic math that was figured out about 200 years ago) to illustrate this incontrovertible dictum.