President Trump has stated that he will impose a 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico on June 10 if Mexico does not take action to slow the volume of immigrants at the US border. The Perryman Group, an economic analysis firm based in Texas, analyzed the economic implications of such a tariff and found that it would likely cost hundreds of thousands of US jobs if enacted and maintained.
The current slowdown at the US-Mexico border is causing substantial economic harms. Trade volume has grown substantially, more than doubling over the past 20 years and up 55% between 2010 and 2018. During 2018, total trade volume between the United States and Mexico exceeded $611.5 billion, with $265.0 billion in US exports to Mexico and $346.5 billion in imports from Mexico. In fact, recent data for January and February of 2019 reveals that, for the first time, Mexico is the top US trading partner.
The Perryman Group's Bordernomics study analyzes the economy of the US-Mexico border region in order to improve understanding of regional dynamics and identify actions which could generate meaningful improvement. The full study provides background information and a summary of current economic conditions, addresses the importance of NAFTA, describes challenges and opportunities faced in the border region, and estimates the business activity and jobs which could be added with enhanced cooperation among the US-Mexico border states.