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The Economic Outlook for Texas and Its Major Metro Areas: Recovery Slows, but Continues
Brief Published on October 22, 2020

The most recent employment data indicates that the pace of hiring in Texas has slowed. In September, 40,700 net new jobs were added, compared to 111,900 in August. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose and is now higher than the national level. While this slowing is not good news, it was not unexpected.

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The Economic Outlook for Texas and Its Major Metro Areas: Recovery from COVID‑19 Begins as the Economy Reopens
Brief Published on July 29, 2020

May and June jobs reports for Texas and the state's largest metropolitan areas were encouraging and reflect the fact that as businesses began to reopen, what was essentially a sound economy before the pandemic responded relatively quickly. Nonetheless, employment remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels. The Perryman Group's latest forecast calls for significant year-over-year losses for 2020, but notable recovery next year. If additional interruptions are required as a result of the recent surge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Texas, the annual declines will escalate.

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The Economic Outlook for Texas' Major Metro Areas: Projected Recession and Recovery from COVID‑19
Brief Published on April 21, 2020

The Perryman Group's most recent economic projections for Texas' largest metropolitan areas incorporate the potential effects of COVID-19 and the downturn in the energy sector. Like the US and Texas, these population centers will see significant losses this year, but a fairly rapid recovery once the worst virus issues have passed. The economic fallout will be significant for each, with the degree of decline and speed of recovery influenced by the differing concentrations of industries across population centers. The downturn, while sharp and painful, will likely be more of a pause than a fundamental change.

Outlook for Texas Metropolitan Area Economies
Column Published in syndication July 28, 2021

The economic upheaval of 2020 impacted all corners of Texas. As centers of employment, the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) experienced the bulk of the heavy losses as the state responded to the COVID-19 crisis. About 79.3% of 1.4 million jobs lost between February and April 2020 were concentrated in the state's six largest MSAs. However, recovery is ongoing, with the pace varying depending on industrial composition and other factors. Let's briefly explore the current status of the state's primary population centers and my latest economic projections.

Big City Job Growth
Column Published in syndication January 15, 2020

Austin-Round Rock was the fastest growing large metropolitan area in the United States over the past decade. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics recently looked at the percent change in employment for metropolitan areas with a 2010 population of at least one million, and Austin-Round Rock topped the list with 43.1% expansion. Between December 2009 and November 2019, all 51 of the largest US metropolitan areas saw employment increases, but the rates of growth varied dramatically from the rapid pace in Austin-Round Rock down to just 5.7% in Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Connecticut.

Economic Outlook for Smaller Metropolitan Areas
Column Published in syndication July 20, 2016

Texas' smaller metropolitan areas will likely be the source for one of every six net new jobs over the long term, and are an important contributor to overall economic growth. These 20 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) range in population size from less than 100,000 to almost 850,000 residents, serving as centers for business activity for the surrounding smaller communities and rural areas.

Long‑Term Economic Forecast for Texas' Largest Metropolitan Areas
Column Published in syndication July 13, 2016

Texas' largest metropolitan areas are set for relatively healthy growth over a long-term horizon. Business cycles will happen, but when we look out through 2040, the state's major population centers are likely to continue to compare well with most parts of the country in terms of economic expansion. The Austin and Dallas areas should lead the way, with Houston, San Antonio, and Fort Worth also doing quite well. For reference, our most recent long-term forecast for the state economy indicates that Texas output (real gross product) will likely expand at a 3.35% annual pace through 2040, while total wage and salary employment grows at a 1.64% yearly pace.