The Permian Basin is among the most important oil-producing regions in the world. Drilling and production and the necessary supporting industries generate business activity not only in the region, but across the state and the nation. In order to be in a position to fully take advantage of future opportunities, it is imperative that the underlying capabilities remain in place - the workforce, the infrastructure, the supply chain, the equipment, and the community support systems. Given the current situation, maintaining this viability requires immediate action from governments at all levels and the private sector.
The high human cost and loss of life due to COVID-19 is tragic and staggering. Few people have remained untouched by the disease in one way or another, with over 20 million US cases. As of the end of 2020, the coronavirus had contributed to the death of nearly 345,000 people in the United States. While the suffering and hardships imposed by these losses are incalculable and the primary concern, the economic consequences cannot be ignored.
The most recent employment data indicates that the pace of hiring in Texas has slowed. In September, 40,700 net new jobs were added, compared to 111,900 in August. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose and is now higher than the national level. While this slowing is not good news, it was not unexpected.
May and June jobs reports for Texas and the state's largest metropolitan areas were encouraging and reflect the fact that as businesses began to reopen, what was essentially a sound economy before the pandemic responded relatively quickly. Nonetheless, employment remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels. The Perryman Group's latest forecast calls for significant year-over-year losses for 2020, but notable recovery next year. If additional interruptions are required as a result of the recent surge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Texas, the annual declines will escalate.
The most recent US jobs reports indicate significant gains and decreasing unemployment, but the total increase over the past two months is far below losses during March and April. Moreover, the recent increase in COVID-19 infections may cause the recovery to slow. The situation remains challenging and fluid, and the recovery will likely be bumpy.
Drastic, but necessary, measures to "flatten the curve" and prevent a major spike in COVID-19 infections have involved shutting down much of the economy. The inevitable result has been the loss of millions of jobs and a sudden and unprecedented downturn.
Drastic, but necessary, measures to "flatten the curve" and prevent a major spike in COVID-19 infections have involved shutting down much of the economy. The inevitable result has been the loss of millions of jobs and a sudden and unprecedented downturn.
Drastic, but necessary, measures to "flatten the curve" and prevent a major spike in COVID-19 infections have involved shutting down much of the economy. The inevitable result has been the loss of millions of jobs and a sudden and unprecedented downturn.
The Perryman Group's most recent economic projections for the US and Texas incorporate the potential effects of COVID-19. The forecast calls for significant losses this year, but a fairly rapid recovery is expected once the worst virus issues have passed.
The Perryman Group's most recent economic projections for Texas' largest metropolitan areas incorporate the potential effects of COVID-19 and the downturn in the energy sector. Like the US and Texas, these population centers will see significant losses this year, but a fairly rapid recovery once the worst virus issues have passed. The economic fallout will be significant for each, with the degree of decline and speed of recovery influenced by the differing concentrations of industries across population centers. The downturn, while sharp and painful, will likely be more of a pause than a fundamental change.