From an economic perspective, it is rare that Presidents move the needle much on economic growth. Historically, the economy has fared moderately better in Democratic administrations, but the difference is small and not necessarily caused by the President. In terms of policy, the ability to implement major initiatives will be highly dependent on the outcome of the two senate races in Georgia.
In a few speeches and scribblings of late, I have noted that we appear on the cusp of a new Roaring Twenties, similar to that emerging a century ago in the wake of the Spanish flu (hopefully without any expectation that I will master the Charleston). That modest projection inevitably raises the question: "If we roar like the 1920s, will we then fall through the floor like the Great Depression of the 1930s?" The answer is quite simple – No!!
Without question, 2020 will be remembered as the year of the coronavirus. The public health crisis and resultant economic calamity have had wide ranging implications throughout the whole of society. The encouraging trajectory of the US economy as the year dawned was abruptly reversed, and a solid and lengthy expansion was halted as huge swaths of the business complex were severely curtailed or shuttered. Perhaps the most striking feature of the nosedive was its unevenness.
As 2020 begins, underlying economic trends have been positive and signs are also positive for continued growth. However, I have to say that this year may be more challenging than those of the recent past, with the single biggest threat to ongoing expansion being the level of uncertainty. Unfortunately, this consternation stems from multiple sources.