Publications | The Perryman Group
Household Debt
Column Published in syndication September 27, 2023

Household debt in the United States is at an all-time high - more than $17 trillion. Of that amount, the lion's share, almost $12.4 trillion, is for housing, and credit card obligations recently topped $1 trillion. These are big numbers, and they are rising. The question is whether they are a cause for concern. The short answer is "not really" given current conditions, though there are some underlying issues which bear watching.

Staying Put
Column Published in syndication September 20, 2023

More than any other state, people born in Texas stay in Texas. The US Bureau of the Census recently released data indicating the state of residence by place of birth. When you look at the percentage of people born in Texas, still living in the United States and, in fact, still living in Texas, you get more than 82% as of 2021. That's considerably higher than anywhere else.

Column Published in syndication September 13, 2023

The United States now exports more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than any other country. It's a relatively new development, with Australia and Qatar usually topping the rankings in the past. The volume of US exports has surged over the past few years, with major new facilities coming online and strong global demand. While Australia and Qatar volumes have been fairly stable since 2018, US exports have basically quadrupled.

Metro Outlook
Column Published in syndication September 06, 2023

Although there are clearly challenges facing the global economy, the outlook for Texas remains largely favorable. Looking within the state, projected growth across all the entire spectrum of diverse metropolitan areas is also positive, though the pace of expansion varies notably. Let's take a quick look at some of our latest projections for the next five years.

Output by the Numbers
Column Published in syndication August 30, 2023

In a recent column, I described our outlook for Texas job growth by industry. This time around, let's focus on our projections for output (or gross product). Simply stated, gross product is the final value of all of the goods and services produced in an area. It's a widely used measure of the health of an economy, and the US gross product numbers are always worthy of headlines.

Big Mac Attack
Column Published in syndication August 23, 2023

The Economist magazine's Big Mac index was recently released, providing insights into the cost of the classic McDonald's burger in countries around the world. The index was started in 1986 to provide a quick look at how currencies are trending against one another. The economic concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates that exchange rates change over time to equalize the global price of an identical basket of goods and services. A single burger was chosen because it is highly standardized irrespective of location (and is ubiquitous and simple to grasp).

Jobs By the Numbers
Column Published in syndication August 16, 2023

Texas continues to shatter records for new jobs. The expansion has been broad based, both in terms of industries and geographic areas. Our latest projections call for notable employment gains over the next five years, though the pace will vary along with external conditions.

Keeping Things Moving
Column Published in syndication August 09, 2023

As you probably know, UPS and the Teamsters union have reached an agreement to narrowly avert a nationwide strike. This high-stakes standoff likely wasn't nightly dinner table conversation for most of you, but the issue was far more impactful than merely one company and its 340,000 or so workers directly involved in the negotiations. A strike would have caused delivery delays, challenged the supply chain, pushed up inflation, and affected individuals and businesses across the world. It would have been particularly problematic for rural residents and those requiring critical medical supplies.

What Recession?
Column Published in syndication August 02, 2023

While we're not out of the woods, opinions about the likelihood of recession are shifting away from the doom and gloom which has been prevalent over the past year. I have always felt that the talk was overblown and that the US economy would prove to be resilient even in the face of the action the Federal Reserve has taken to slow inflation.

Heat Wave
Column Published in syndication July 26, 2023

Texas has thus far endured a heat wave of historic proportions in the summer of 2023. The higher-than-normal temperatures have created health issues for many residents and impacted quality of life for millions of people. Not surprisingly, the effects do not stop there.