The Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) has been working to reduce the tragically high human and financial cost of cancer since 2010. Texas voters approved a constitutional amendment in 2007 to establish CPRIT, authorizing the State to issue $3 billion in bonds to fund groundbreaking cancer research and prevention programs and services over a ten-year period. This effort has supported world-renowned scholars (including a 2018 Nobel Prize recipient) and has helped to notably enhance Texas' position as a biomedical center.
About 72.4% of Texans live in the state's biggest metropolitan areas, a proportion which has been rising over time. Though smaller population centers and rural areas make a significant contribution (particularly those in the oil-rich regions of the Permian Basin, South, and East Texas), The Perryman Group's long-term forecast indicates that, through 2045, over 80% of new jobs will be in one of the seven largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in Texas.
The Texas economy has been among the fastest growing in the nation for a number of years. With more major corporate relocations and expansions than any other state, Texas is expected to continue to outperform most areas. Here is a look at key patterns affecting performance and a summary of my latest long-term forecast.
When I decided on this topic, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had evidently reached an agreement in principle to ratchet down the tensions between the US and China and work toward solving trade-related problems. Fears of a full-out trade war (or worse) were abated somewhat as the two sat down at the G-20 meeting and started a dialogue about getting to a deal. By the time that I actually put pen to paper (yes, I still do that), tweets and conflicting accounts of the discussions had markets taking an 800-point nosedive. Here is the state of play (I think).
The US economy is well positioned for long-term growth. Future prosperity will depend on the ability of individuals, businesses, and communities to adapt to change, which is likely to occur at an accelerating pace. Let's take a brief look at our expectations for long-term US economic performance and some of the driving factors.
The "yield curve" has recently been receiving some attention because it can be a harbinger of economic downturns and has long been analyzed as a tool for predicting recessions. However, I don't currently see it as a major cause for concern. Here's why.
After about 14 months of analysis, Amazon made a decision on its second corporate headquarters (HQ2), and it isn't Texas. Many lists of likely locations put Texas at or near the top, but at the end of the day, Amazon chose Crystal City in Northern Virginia and Long Island, New York for HQ2, with each area gaining about 25,000 jobs. Another, smaller location in Nashville will involve about 5,000 jobs. In addition to the sheer numbers, the jobs will be very highly compensated and have substantial spinoff potential.
Recent rhetoric and threats have added additional fuel to the already simmering trade war between the United States and China. Stock markets and business leaders around the globe respond immediately and significantly to the ebb and flow of the situation, and we can expect ongoing volatility until it is resolved. As I am writing, some hope of a truce has markets surging; by the time you are reading this, the situation could be very different.
There are more job openings in the United States than there have ever been before: more than seven million of them. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking job openings since December 2000, and the number has never been as high as it was at the end of August (the most recent reading) at more than 7.1 million.