What A Year
Column Published in syndication December 31, 2025The end of one year and beginning of another is a natural time of reflection and assessment. As far as 2025 goes, all I can say is - WHAT A YEAR! Economic changes occur constantly, but 2025 saw several large-scale shifts that will reverberate for years to come. As we wrap up 2025, let's look back at some of the most notable economic highlights (and lowlights).
Essential Early Education
Column Published in syndication December 24, 2025The importance of effective early childhood education can hardly be overstated. In addition to improving the future quality of life and opportunities for children by better preparing them for success in school, such options are crucial to working parents. My firm recently examined this phenomenon through an economic cost and benefit lens, and the results make a compelling case for substantial and sustained investments.
- Tags:
- education
Metro Magnets
Column Published in syndication December 17, 2025The dynamic urban centers dotting the vast Texas landscape play a dominant role in the economic prospects of the state. Our latest forecast shows expansion for all metropolitan areas in Texas in the decades to come, though the specific industries and growth patterns vary markedly among them. World economic events will impact the outcomes, but Texas cities are well positioned to add jobs and increase output over the next 30 years. The largest population centers are expected to provide most of the increase, but the smaller metropolitan areas will also contribute to employment and overall economic growth in the state.
The Long‑Term Texas Economic Forecast
Column Published in syndication December 10, 2025Although Texas has been faring somewhat better than most areas, the state is not immune to the national and global economic slowdown. Current challenges are affecting key industries and the pace of hiring, but expansion is expected over a long-term horizon. The Perryman Group's latest projections indicate that the Texas economy is well positioned to return to more significant growth in the coming decades.
- Tags:
- Texas,
- economic forecast
A Longer View of the US Economy
Column Published in syndication December 03, 2025In the wake of tariffs, immigration crackdowns, geopolitical disruptions, and heightened uncertainty, the pace of US job growth has slowed significantly in recent months and has been trending at a pace well below historical patterns. In addition, performance across industries has recently been notably uneven. While current challenges are clearly affecting near-term expansion, looking out over a few decades, we are still seeing signs of solid potential.
- Tags:
- long-term outlook,
- economy,
- United States
Trillion Dollar Holiday
Column Published in syndication November 26, 2025The National Retail Federation (NRF) is projecting that holiday retail sales will top $1 trillion this year for the first time. Sales are forecast to be 3.7-4.2% higher than last year, which is comparable to 2024's gain of 4.3%. Other projections also call for significantly higher sales totals, though somewhat lower than the pace of increases that were typical prior to the pandemic.
- Tags:
- retail sales,
- holidays
Investing in the Future
Column Published in syndication November 19, 2025Texas voters recently passed a variety of amendments to the state's constitution, most by a significant margin. Several of these enactments will play a pivotal role in long-term economic development, helping ensure the state is well-positioned going forward.
- Tags:
- economic development,
- Texas
LNG
Column Published in syndication November 12, 2025Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a critical source of energy for meeting exploding future global energy needs. It can also assist in achieving climate goals through replacing more emissions-intensive sources (such as coal). The United States is by far the largest producer and exporter of LNG, with new facilities coming online (including many along the Texas coast) which will enhance future capacity.
Looking for Labor
Column Published in syndication November 05, 2025Recent data indicate that US legal immigration has slowed markedly under the current tighter immigration policies. There is evidence that more foreign-born persons are leaving than entering, and H-1B visa registrations as well as student and temporary work visas have dropped. While accurate estimates are difficult to generate at best, it appears that the number of foreign-born workers has declined by well over one million in 2025.
- Tags:
- immigration,
- labor
Rare Earths
Column Published in syndication October 29, 2025Rare earth elements (or minerals) are comprised of 17 elements, including the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium. Although produced in small amounts compared to many elements, they are becoming increasingly essential to the economy and national security.
- Tags:
- rare earths,
- China