Trade Tribulation
Column Published in syndication February 05, 2025Although the situation remains in flux and a temporary pause is fortunately in place, it bears repeating that sustained, significant tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would be very costly to the US economy. Tariffs of 25% on virtually all goods imported from Mexico and Canada (except for Canadian energy products which are scheduled to be at a 10% rate) were recently announced. Such levies would begin to shred the gains that these countries have attained by stitching their economies together during three decades of free trade.
Where the Jobs Are
Column Published in syndication January 29, 2025The US Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released data related to the employment growth by state in 2024. Texas led the way by a substantial margin, but job numbers were up for most states. Let's explore a few interesting points.
Changing of the Guard
Column Published in syndication January 22, 2025President Trump hit the ground running, signing a pile of executive orders on a variety of topics on day one and rapidly implementing other changes. Some will result in immediate action, but many are merely symbolic or will require Congressional approval. Still others are in conflict with constitutional requirements and some will face legitimate legal challenges. Not surprisingly, responses have been loud and mixed both here and around the world. Let's look at what all of the sound and fury likely means for the economy when all is said and done.
- Tags:
- economy
Job Gyrations
Column Published in syndication January 15, 2025Despite remarkable resilience, Federal Reserve actions to slow inflation have had the inevitable effect of weakening the job market. There are fewer openings and slower gains than a year ago, though the trend is somewhat erratic and remains generally upward. More concerning from a long-term perspective is the mix of jobs being added and those that have been lost. Let's explore some highlights from recent data describing how the labor market changed during 2024.
Looking Ahead
Column Published in syndication January 08, 2025I've been analyzing the Texas economy for more than four decades, including peering into the future to project growth patterns (I was very young when I started). I've recently taken yet another deep dive into the long-term outlook for the state, including which industries are likely to lead the way. Let's take a quick look.
- Tags:
- long-term outlook,
- Texas economy
Goodbye 2024
Column Published in syndication January 01, 2025As we wind down 2024, here's a look at some of the key events affecting the economy and potential effects going forward. By any definition, it has been quite a year! One of the most notable events was the decrease in US inflation, down from about 9% to less than 3%. Even with the aggressive measures taken by the Federal Reserve to make it happen, a major downturn was avoided. In September, a rate cut was finally implemented, with others in November and December.
The Long‑Term Economic Forecast for Texas Metropolitan Areas
Column Published in syndication December 25, 2024Our latest long-term projections indicate that each of the state's metropolitan statistical areas is expected to see significant job gains over the next three decades. Industrial concentrations and other characteristics vary notably, affecting the pace of expansion. Nonetheless, we should see widespread growth across the vast Texas terrain. Let's briefly examine our latest forecast.
- Tags:
- Texas,
- MSA,
- economic forecast
The Long‑Term Outlook for the Texas Economy
Column Published in syndication December 18, 2024The dynamic Texas economy continues to add jobs across most industry sectors, though the pace has decreased somewhat of late. Given the slowing in the national economy and rising global uncertainty, it's a positive signal that the state's generally expansionary trend has been mostly sustained. The Perryman Group's latest long-term forecast indicates that Texas is likely to continue to generate a substantial portion of the nation's overall growth. There are certainly obstacles, but favorable patterns include demographics, energy, and emerging industries.
- Tags:
- long-term outlook,
- Texas,
- economic forecast
The Long‑Term Outlook for the US Economy
Column Published in syndication December 11, 2024The US economy is slowing to some extent, with relatively modest job gains (particularly in the private sector) and other signs of a less robust period of activity. The current situation is the inevitable result of Federal Reserve efforts to slow inflation and uncertainties such as increasingly acute geopolitical tensions and the prospects for policy shifts in a new Administration.
- Tags:
- long-term outlook,
- economy,
- United States
Tariff Turbulence
Column Published in syndication December 04, 2024President-elect Trump has announced that he is planning to implement a 25% tariff on all goods imported to the US from Canada and Mexico. The stated goals are to reduce the flow of fentanyl and other drugs into the United States and to increase assistance with controlling illegal immigration. While these issues are certainly important, the economic costs of such tariffs would be enormous.
- Tags:
- tariffs,
- Canada,
- Mexico,
- United States