Rising Tide
Column Published in syndication September 23, 2020

The more than ten years of sustained economic expansion that preceded the pandemic, the longest period of growth in US history, brought notable progress across a broad spectrum. The latest income and poverty data from the US Census Bureau (through 2019) illustrate this point, indicating how the sustained strength benefitted individuals and families across the nation. Real (inflation-adjusted) median household income increased an impressive 6.8% between 2018 and 2019 to reach $68,703. It was the highest level since the series began (1967). It's an impressive increase from just five years prior in 2014, when median household income was $58,001, which was lower than five years prior to that in 2009 ($59,458). Keep in mind that the median is the level at which half are above and half are below; it's not just some huge gains at the top end driving the increases (although there has been some widening of the gap).

Structure
Column Published in syndication September 16, 2020

Prior to COVID-19, the US was in the midst of a 10+ year expansion. While not perfect, the basic structure of the economy was basically sound. If this structure is kept intact, the recovery can be both robust and rapid. If it is allowed to deteriorate, things will inevitably be much worse.

Bigger than GDP
Column Published in syndication September 09, 2020

According to a new report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the amount of federal debt held by the public is projected to exceed gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time next year. This assessment is consistent with current and projected patterns and, thus, likely to occur.

Federal Reserve Policy Shift
Column Published in syndication September 02, 2020

A shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) policy was recently announced. This newsflash could easily be missed in the midst of a pandemic, significant economic dislocations, and social unrest. I wrote my dissertation on Fed policy in the mid-1970s (as well as numerous academic articles and my first book). As part of that ordeal, I read the meeting minutes dating back to the 1950s. Thus, I am likely the only person who has perused the notes from every meeting for the past 70 years (comments regarding my social life are discouraged). All of that to say, believe me, this one is a big deal.

Long‑Term Economic Forecast for Texas Metropolitan Areas
Column Published in syndication August 26, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions needed to slow the spread of the virus have caused substantial harm to the economy. Even in the face of significant job losses and output declines, however, the underlying structure is generally sound and long-term prospects remain positive (though the next couple of years will be quite different than what we were expecting before the coronavirus). Looking beyond the immediate horizon, our latest long-term forecasts for job growth in the state's metropolitan areas are on the whole encouraging. Let's take a quick trip around the state.

1.2 Million Texas Jobs
Column Published in syndication August 19, 2020

Texas has been one of the strongest performing states in the US for a number of years, attracting more major corporate locations and expansions than any other and regularly topping lists of the best places to do business. As examples, the state has won the "Governor's Cup" for the most major projects for the past eight consecutive years and was recently named the "State of the Decade" by Site Selection magazine.

The Importance of the 2020 Census
Column Published in syndication August 12, 2020

Accurate Census counts are far more than just a matter of interest. They are vital to ensuring adequate federal funding for various programs, appropriate representation in Congress, and an understanding of demographic trends to plan for the future. Over 300 federal programs rely on Census data to allocate funds geographically, as do numerous state and local initiatives. For example, many resources and dollars for hospitals and health clinics are distributed according to Census data. Important aspects of the social safety net, such as Medicaid and CHIP, SNAP, and housing vouchers, also depend on Census estimates, programs that will only become more vital as the economy continues to experience disruptions from the pandemic.

The Short‑Term Forecast for the Texas Economy
Column Published in syndication August 05, 2020

The last two (May and June) Texas jobs reports were encouraging, reflecting the fact that, as businesses began to reopen, what was essentially a sound economy before the pandemic responded relatively quickly. However, even with these gains, Texas is nonetheless almost 700,000 jobs below a year ago and about 900,000 below the level just before the outbreak began.

The Outlook for US Economic Recovery
Column Published in syndication July 29, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic continues. Following significant surges in many states, signals in late July (at least as I am writing) have been modestly encouraging, with case numbers beginning to level off and COVID-related emergency room visits trending downward. Nonetheless, it will be a while before daily life or the economy can approach normal.

Universities and COVID
Column Published in syndication July 22, 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic emerged this spring, college campuses across the United States swiftly sent students home in droves and switched to online distance learning. The quick transition came with hopes and expectations that things would be largely back to normal by the fall. However, such is not the case, and uncertainty is growing as the time to prepare is diminishing.