Economic Forecast for Texas' Small and Mid‑Sized Metropolitan Areas | The Perryman Group

Economic Forecast for Texas' Small and Mid‑Sized Metropolitan Areas

By: Dr. M. Ray Perryman
Published in syndication May 29, 2019

Communities across Texas are contributing to economic growth. Although the state's largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) are where the lion's share of economic activity occurs, most of the smaller population centers are also performing well. For example, the Midland, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Odessa MSAs have been ranking among the lowest unemployment rates in the state. My latest forecast calls for notable growth in each of these important regional centers of business activity.

For comparison, we are projecting overall Texas employment growth at a 2.02% annual rate through 2023. The seven largest metropolitan areas (Austin-Round Rock, Dallas-Plano-Irving, Fort Worth-Arlington, El Paso, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, and San Antonio-New Braunfels) are expected to gain almost 1.1 million net new jobs through the next five years. That's about 79% of the total. Five of the seven are likely to exceed the statewide pace, though Fort Worth-Arlington and El Paso lag the state rate slightly.

Even so, small and mid-sized metropolitan areas are important centers for the energy sector, higher education, health care, agriculture, and a variety of other industries. The state's 19 other MSAs are likely to account for almost 15% of total job gains in Texas through 2023, with the remaining 6% or so added in rural areas.

The Midland and Odessa MSAs are projected to experience particularly strong employment growth rates during the next five years, primarily as a result of the globally significant increases in oil and gas production and the corresponding effects on many channels of business activity. The Tyler (2.08%) and Brownsville-Harlingen (2.07%) MSAs are also expected to see job growth which outpaces the state.

Other MSAs are likely to see economic expansion through the forecast horizon ranging from 1.70% to 1.96% per annum. Near the upper end of the range are Laredo (1.96%), Sherman-Denison (1.92%), and Lubbock (1.90%). More moderate employment gains are projected in Corpus Christi (1.88%), College Station-Bryan (1.86%), Abilene (1.84%), Texarkana (1.82%), Waco (1.82%), Amarillo (1.80%), Longview (1.80%), and Victoria (1.80%). Expected rates of employment growth in San Angelo (1.76%), Wichita Falls (1.74%), Killeen-Temple (1.71%), and Beaumont-Port Arthur (1.70%) metropolitan areas are slightly lower.

Even in the smallest of the MSAs, thousands of jobs are likely to be added over the next few years. In some areas, such as the Permian Basin, employment growth is occurring at rates that are among the most rapid in the country. Over time, Texas will continue to see economic activity concentrated in the largest cities. However, there are also opportunities for those who live (or wish to live) in places with a slower pace, less traffic, and a wealth of other amenities available in our diverse state.