The Long‑Term Economic Forecast for Texas Metropolitan Areas
By: Dr. M. Ray Perryman
Published in syndication November 27, 2019
The major drivers of much of the economic activity across the state are Texas' largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Our long-term forecast for these population centers indicates continued expansion. Let's take a quick look at our projections for growth through 2045.
The Austin-Round Rock MSA is expected to perform well, with a $195.4 billion increase in real gross product (RGP) by 2045 (a 3.20% annual pace). Nearly 619,100 new jobs are likely to be added, a 1.68% annual gain.
The Dallas-Plano-Irving Metropolitan Division's diverse economy is well positioned for long-term expansion, with the highest projected percentage gains for output and employment among the large Texas MSAs. Employment is expected to increase by 1.7 million (or 1.84% per year), while RGP is forecast to rise by 3.28% annually for an added $546.0 billion in the local economy.
The Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Division is expected to continue to see expansion at a moderate pace, with RGP increasing by $163.7 billion by 2045, growth of 2.97% per annum. Employment is expected to expand by nearly 568,400 jobs, representing an annual growth rate of 1.56%.
The El Paso MSA is projected to see modest growth at a pace slightly behind the rest of the state, with an increase of $31.2 billion in RGP projected (2.74% annual growth). Our forecast also projects expansion of employment at a rate of 1.46% yearly (for a gain of about 171,000 jobs).
The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA has experienced healthy growth led by the energy sector, a pattern which is expected to be maintained. RGP is forecast to grow 3.13% yearly, for a total gain of $667.4 billion. Employment is projected to increase by approximately 1.7 million to reach 4.9 million, annual growth of 1.61%.
The McAllen-Edinburg-Mission MSA is projected to add over 167,700 jobs, a 1.76% annual growth rate. Real gross product is forecast to expand at a 2.96% annual rate for a $23.9 billion gain.
The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA is forecast to see RGP increase by $168.4 billion, which represents a 3.06% annual rate of increase. Employment is likely to rise at a 1.65% yearly rate, generating an addition of over 620,500 jobs.
Our long-term projections indicate that through 2045, close to eight of every 10 new jobs are expected to be in one of the seven largest MSAs in Texas. In fact, the Houston area and the Metroplex alone will likely account for well over half of the positions added, though many smaller population centers and rural areas make a significant contribution to overall economic performance.