The Economic Outlook for the United States

Recovery from COVID‑19 Begins as the Economy Reopens

Published on July 27, 2020
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The most recent US jobs reports indicate significant gains and decreasing unemployment, but the total increase over the past two months is far below losses during March and April. Moreover, the recent increase in COVID-19 infections may cause the recovery to slow. The situation remains challenging and fluid, and the recovery will likely be bumpy.

Compared to last quarter's forecast, The Perryman Group's outlook has become slightly less negative for this year as businesses have been allowed to reopen, but worse for 2021 as cases have escalated and progress on dealing with the health crisis has been slow, thus permitting a somewhat less robust comeback. Note that the year-over-year losses are much lower than the annualized losses observed in the second quarter, due to the fact that major swaths of the economy were shut down beginning in April.

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