COVID‑19 Pandemic Could Cost Most Populous US States Hundreds of Thousands of Job‑Years

Published on March 27, 2020
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The inevitable result of measures taken to "flatten the curve" and prevent a major spike in coronavirus infections has been a strong shock to the economy. As noted in a recent report by The Perryman Group related to COVID-19's impact on the US economy, many factors will determine the ultimate effects of the coronavirus on the economy, most of which are highly uncertain at present.

The Perryman Group developed a plausible scenario for estimating the ultimate effects of the coronavirus based on a variety of public and private source materials (further described in the US report). The Perryman Group estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic could cost the US economy approximately $972.6 billion in real gross product and 11.4 million job-years (a job-year is the equivalent of one person working for a year, though it could be multiple individuals working partial years).

Communities across the nation are feeling negative effects. The Perryman Group estimated the potential costs of COVID-19 for the nation's 10 most populous states. Projected job losses in California total over 1.4 million job-years, with 1.0 million in Texas, 723,500 in Florida, and 670,700 in New York.

Note that jobs are reported on an annual basis; thus, many more individuals are likely to be affected for a portion of the year. More detailed results by industry are provided in the PDF available below . Although the situation is changing rapidly and the ultimate outcomes will undoubtedly vary from these estimates, they provide a guideline for planning and expectations.

The physical wellbeing of the population is of paramount concern, yet the economic consequences must also be aggressively addressed as they too involve substantial human costs.

For more details please refer to the full brief.