Publications | The Perryman Group
Moving About
Column Published in syndication November 01, 2023

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how most people born in Texas stay in Texas. According to Census data, over 82% of people born in Texas and still living in the United States have remained here (as of 2021). The Texas proportion of people staying put is considerably higher than any other state. This week, let's look at things from other directions.

Fueling the Future
Column Published in syndication October 25, 2023

The US Energy Information Administration recently released its long-term projections for global fuel demand. The International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023) looks at long-term energy trends across the world through 2050. It includes seven scenarios with widely varying assumptions regarding economic growth, zero-carbon technology costs, and oil prices. Of particular relevance to the Texas economy, every case indicates higher worldwide consumption of oil and natural gas in 2050 than in 2022.

Wired
Column Published in syndication October 18, 2023

Many types of infrastructure, including electricity and telephones, started out as luxuries but quickly became essential as deployment spread. Just a few years ago, broadband internet access was viewed as a convenience. Mediocre speeds were sufficient for most tasks, and anything beyond that only came in handy to allow movies to stream with fewer glitches. That time, however, has long passed.

Women Working
Column Published in syndication October 11, 2023

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for this year has been awarded to American Claudia Goldin of Harvard University for her work in explaining changes in women's earnings and participation in the labor market. Dr. Goldin examined more than 200 years of data (much of it gathered through painstaking sleuthing through obscure sources) to identify the causes of changes and the primary forces behind the lingering gender pay gap.

ARPA‑H
Column Published in syndication October 04, 2023

Texas has been selected as the site of a major new federal initiative aimed at improving health. The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) is tasked with supporting biomedical and health breakthroughs. The agency has chosen three hubs (Texas, Cambridge, and Washington DC). Dallas will host the Customer Experience Hub, with Austin, Houston, and San Antonio also heavily involved. A collaboration among these cities and a wide array of business and community leaders across the state provided the impetus for Texas to secure this vital project. I was pleased to be involved in the process, and my firm generated underlying data and analysis to support the effort.

Household Debt
Column Published in syndication September 27, 2023

Household debt in the United States is at an all-time high - more than $17 trillion. Of that amount, the lion's share, almost $12.4 trillion, is for housing, and credit card obligations recently topped $1 trillion. These are big numbers, and they are rising. The question is whether they are a cause for concern. The short answer is "not really" given current conditions, though there are some underlying issues which bear watching.

Staying Put
Column Published in syndication September 20, 2023

More than any other state, people born in Texas stay in Texas. The US Bureau of the Census recently released data indicating the state of residence by place of birth. When you look at the percentage of people born in Texas, still living in the United States and, in fact, still living in Texas, you get more than 82% as of 2021. That's considerably higher than anywhere else.

LNG
Column Published in syndication September 13, 2023

The United States now exports more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than any other country. It's a relatively new development, with Australia and Qatar usually topping the rankings in the past. The volume of US exports has surged over the past few years, with major new facilities coming online and strong global demand. While Australia and Qatar volumes have been fairly stable since 2018, US exports have basically quadrupled.

Metro Outlook
Column Published in syndication September 06, 2023

Although there are clearly challenges facing the global economy, the outlook for Texas remains largely favorable. Looking within the state, projected growth across all the entire spectrum of diverse metropolitan areas is also positive, though the pace of expansion varies notably. Let's take a quick look at some of our latest projections for the next five years.

Output by the Numbers
Column Published in syndication August 30, 2023

In a recent column, I described our outlook for Texas job growth by industry. This time around, let's focus on our projections for output (or gross product). Simply stated, gross product is the final value of all of the goods and services produced in an area. It's a widely used measure of the health of an economy, and the US gross product numbers are always worthy of headlines.