Storms
While much of America’s attention is currently focused on March Madness and the Final Four, many people in the Northeast are thinking about the “big four.” The first reference, of course, pertains to basketball. The latter relates to the four major winter storms that have smashed through various Northeastern states since February, with the last one just a few weeks ago. The third one managed to shut down the federal government in Washington DC for a record period (some folks probably don’t think that is necessarily a bad thing). I managed to get caught, with my flights cancelled or delayed, on several occasions as I seemed to chase the weather across the country.
The fourth, and hopefully final, storm of the season was caused by a slow-moving weather pattern that produced widespread flooding of both urban and low-lying areas. Fortunately, the deaths were not as many as feared, but near gale-force winds snapped trees and power lines, leaving upwards of a million people temporarily without electrical power. Destruction of property, as well as overall economic damage (the total amount is not yet known), was extensive. Snow plows, which had just been put away after days of exhaustive work, were recalled to remove flooding leftovers. Some communities are still feeling the effects of the unwelcome interloping into their everyday normalcy. . Unlike the three February tempests that dumped several feet of snow along their paths, rain was the only precipitation associated with this storm as it drifted eastward with tentacles stretching from Texas to the Great Lakes to meet a sister low pressure center surging northward from North Carolina.
Although the areas most affected were in the Northeast, neighborhoods as far west as Minnesota experienced atypical raging of rivers. Fortunately, major waterways fell short of their predicted crests, and the efforts of residents to fill more than a million sandbags protected many threatened communities.
In addition to those areas immediately impacted by the “big four” storms, transportation disruption and lost business activities in our “just-in-time” society were significantly affected in many other areas of the country that were far removed from blizzards and torrents. Some analysts predict that the US airline industry’s storm-related revenue losses might rise as high as $150 million, though the final amount may be somewhat less.
Shopping suffered because of the snow and rain as did construction projects, but other business opportunities, such as snowplowing, enjoyed increased interest. The hospitality industry experienced losses due to the lack of travel, but accommodations near airports had a notable boost in occupancy as people waited for flights.
During the more difficult days when thousands of people were unable to get to work, businesses underwent financial losses, of course. Where possible, a return to work involved added duties and expanded hours in order to recoup losses.
The Northeast is no stranger to terrible winter weather. A recent ranking of 70 major storms to hit the area since 1950 noted that none of the “big four” came close to causing problems of the same magnitude as the super storm of 1993 (which involved an estimated $5 billion in overall economic damage) or the devastating blizzard in January 1996 (both classified in the extreme category).
Those extreme storms of the 1990s severely disrupted schools, businesses, and everyday life. However, many of the things that had been planned—from ordinary things like buying milk or going to a movie or even specific business operations—were simply delayed. On the other hand, smaller businesses that depend on routine daily activities (like restaurants or parking garages or taxis and buses) as well as many others, experienced lost revenues that could not be reclaimed. The 2010 storms have likely caused a similar phenomenon.
The Labor Department’s reporting of non-farm payroll jobs gained or lost in February was likely affected by the storms and their fallout, as the debilitating weather kept some people from working or even looking for jobs. In addition, in some cases, payrolls may fall below normal levels because people were unable to get to their jobs. Historically, with the return of good weather, payrolls climb upward and in many cases eclipse the losses by significant amounts.
Over the next several weeks, we will likely be able to see more clearly the overall economic impact wrought by the “big four.” For now, suffice it to say that there are often disruptions beyond anyone’s control that can make a measurable difference in reported economic performance and the lives of countless individuals.
posted @ 08:05 AM CST [link]
Friday, March 19, 2010
Broadband
Antique stores are popular destinations for a lot of folks. Located in all parts of the country, some are large and others quite small, even quaint. What all of them have in common is that their inventories are reminders of the past or, as some people call it, the good ol’ days.
Visit one and you will often hear comments such as “I remember these,” or “I used to have one of those.” Fast forward a few years and comments might change to “my first one looked like that” or “how did we ever get along without them.” Such observations could pertain to many things in our lives, but perhaps the most prevalent or pervasive (depending on one’s views) would be computers, particularly those with high-speed Internet service whereby one can be transported around the world in a few nanoseconds, something that books were used for not all that long ago.
Nowadays, more than a quarter of the world has access to the Internet, with 380% growth over the past decade. In the US, nearly 75% of the population uses the Internet—up from around 44% just ten years ago. According to “Internet World Stats,” last June there were over 69.9 million broadband subscribers in the US. Of that number, approximately 634,000 had joined during the preceding three months.
Historically, those living in rural areas have been behind in broadband usage, often because delivery systems were not in place to facilitate the process of linking up to the Internet in such a manner. A study recently released by comScore, Inc. indicates that vast changes have been taking place over the past couple of years or so.
While broadband penetration is still much higher in metro areas, rural areas (defined as areas of less than 10,000 population) are increasing their catch-up pace. From the second quarter of 2007 to the same time period last year, rural markets achieved a 16% increase in broadband penetration, compared to 11%-14% rise in more heavily populated areas. Even so, rural residents still lag urban dwellers in Internet usage overall.
Some people compare the broadband situation to be similar in need and potential to that which faced telephone and electricity industries in the past. As those entities spread into the nation’s urban and rural areas, positive results became readily apparent in most aspects of daily life, from business to entertainment.
When the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) became law last year, a total of $7.2 million was allocated for use by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration and the Department of Rural Utilities Service to move ahead more quickly with high-speed infrastructure and broadband deployment in areas lacking them.
The plan to accomplish this objective has been under study for the past several months and some of the findings have been released this week. The premise of the plan focuses on the concept that broadband is no longer a luxury, but a critical element of the nation’s economic development and a vital tool in improving education, health care, and overall communication. In short, Internet access is rapidly becoming a part of the essential infrastructure of the country, much as electric power and basic telephone service did in an earlier era.
The goal of the proposal introduced this week is that 100 million households across the country be connected to 100 megabits per second broadband service (up to 20 times faster than most homes now have) by 2020. In addition, the desire is that every community in America have at least one major institution, such as a hospital, school, or library, with ultra-high-speed (at least a gigabit per second) Internet access—up to 10 times faster than that envisioned for home use.
The plan, which does not have a final overall price tag yet, suggests that significant funding might be achieved by auctioning frequencies reclaimed from TV stations to wireless Internet service companies. Models along the lines of those currently used to subsidize telephone service in rural and poor areas are also being explored.
Of course, significant challenges and hurdles still must be overcome before Congress approves the plan and corporate support and legal clearances are obtained. But at least the vision has been defined, the direction determined, and the first steps have been taken. The speed with which the goal is reached will determine how many years it will take for those in all parts of the country to be able to say, “How did we ever get along without that?”
posted @ 08:02 AM CST [link]
Friday, March 12, 2010
Census 2010
Enumerating residents within certain geographical areas has been a practice followed by many governments stretching back more than 2,500 years. Often, the purpose of such censuses has been related to collecting taxes, but there are also other, more beneficial reasons for counting noses.
A major purpose of the US Census is to determine the number of congressional districts or members of the 435-seat House of Representatives to be awarded to each state. The data is also used to decide on the appropriate distribution of federal government revenues to the various federal, state, and local governments—much of which is allocated by population totals or some other measure that is derived from the census.
Based on population growth rates from 2000 to 2009, the Census Bureau estimates that eight states stand to gain representatives and 10 states will probably lose them—beginning with the 2012 elections. The biggest gainer will likely be Texas, and Ohio is expected to suffer the largest loss.
Also affected by the population shifts as ascertained through the census will be the number of votes each state will have in the Electoral College for the 2012 presidential election.
Authority for the census emanates from Article I of the US Constitution. Since Benjamin Franklin was instrumental in the passage of this section, he is often considered as the father of the US Census.
Since 1790, when the nation’s first census was undertaken, the number of residents in America has been gathered by government entities, often amid swirls of controversy ranging from the length of the survey to the words chosen, as well as the method selected for the tabulation.
Incidentally, the 1790 census cost $44,000 or about 24 cents per person after adjusting for 220 years of inflation. The 2000 census inflation-adjusted per-person cost was approximately $20 while the current census is estimated to cost around $48 per person counted, perhaps more since final outlays have yet to be verified. In 2004, the General Accountability Office estimated the total cost for the 2010 census at $11 billion. The price tag has undoubtedly increased since that time.
Proposals have often been made to use statistical sampling instead of head counts to gather census information. In January 1999, the Supreme Court ruled against such a method but did allow statistical sampling methods to be used in some areas such as distributing federal monies. Given the mobility of our population and the enhanced methods and machines that are now available, we would likely achieve a much more accurate estimate at a much lower cost using statistical approaches than attempting to physically enumerate each and every one of us. But, at least for the time being, the laborious count will continue.
The 2010 census is now underway and over the next few months, practically everyone living in the US will have the opportunity to be included on the population rolls. Regardless of whether the person is homeless or lives in a mansion or whether the person is in the country illegally or is a US citizen—efforts will be made to count everyone.
Interviews for enumerator positions are ongoing and it is anticipated that many thousands will apply for the jobs that are scheduled to pay up to $20 per hour with most of the jobs lasting for approximately three to five months. The majority of the new census employees will serve as door to door workers and will be armed with credentials and question-and-answer sheets. The influx of workers will certainly prove to be something of a boost for the monthly employment data, but, by summer, most of these jobs will be completed.
These thousands of workers will be the final outreach arm of the Census Bureau in trying to locate those who did not mail back the forms which are being sent this month to everyone with a valid address. Estimates from bureau officials are that about 7% of the forms mailed to individual households, or approximately 28 million, will be lost or tossed by the recipients. Those who do not return the material will be contacted from April through July by the temporary census agents by mail, telephone, or personal visits in hopes of soliciting answers to the 10-question census form. This form is much shorter and less intrusive than that used in the 22nd decennial census in 2000.
In December, the Census Bureau will deliver the population information to the president for apportionment and over the next three months, the Bureau will provide the data to states to enable them to begin their process of redistricting.
Census taking is certainly not 100% accurate and the methods for ascertaining the information are far from infallible. There will be the inevitable lawsuits from areas that feel undercounted. Even so, though Benjamin Franklin might be amazed at the rise in the cost of the census since his time, he undoubtedly would be pleased that his ideas are being followed and continue to impact the effectiveness and efficiency of our government and our knowledge about ourselves.
posted @ 07:58 AM CST [link]
Friday, March 5, 2010
Texas Job Growth
In the midst of oft-changing variables, it is sometimes helpful to look at a broader, longer-term perspective. This is particularly true when the subject is at the top of the interest list of the majority of Americans. I’m referring to jobs and, although the situation in most states over the past several years has been disheartening, Texas stands out as the silver lining in the cloud of unemployment. In particular, the pattern in private sector jobs across the country over the past decade is stunning, with Texas being one of the few bright spots.
Each month, the number of people working in Texas, as in all other states, changes. Fortunately for the Lone Star State, that change has usually been on the positive side, though there have been a few months when job losses were significant during the recent downturn. Overall, however, a longer-term view over the past decade indicates that more private sector jobs have been created in Texas than any other state in the nation.
In December 1999, the US was at the peak of the high-tech bubble and the country’s unemployment rate was resting at 4.0%. After a decade, as a result of staggering aftershocks from almost unprecedented economic difficulties, the US, as a whole, is experiencing unemployment rates around 10.0%.
From December 1999 through December 2009, Texas added 724,300 net private sector workers, a 9.30% total gain. For this same period, the nation experienced a -1.41% loss in the number of private sector jobs.
Of the remainder of the 10 most populous states in the US, only Florida was able to achieve positive private employment growth (up 259,500, a 4.31% hike). The other top 10 states experienced job losses with percentages ranging from -1.04% (New York) to -19.56% (Michigan).
Texas, of course, has certainly not escaped the wrath of the recent recession and the corollary loss of jobs, but its effects have not been felt as strongly as in other states. Part of the reason is Texas’ business friendly environment, tax structure, and economic policies, all favorable to creating and expanding jobs.
Another contributor has been the population expansion. The number of residents in the Lone Star State has been growing by more than 1,000 new residents a day, much of it by domestic and foreign migration because of the diversity of jobs in Texas, as well as the availability of housing complexes within close proximity to work centers plus healthy environments and quality-of-life opportunities for families. This increase in population has greatly enlarged the potential workforce, especially those with the skills needed for today’s jobs.
Still another reason why Texas’ general employment atmosphere remains positive is that in 2003, when the state began experiencing declining revenues, spending cuts became the norm as opposed to raising taxes or operating from a deficit—a practice the federal government has not yet fully valued.
Other significant factors that have contributed to the state’s employment health can be traced to the implementation several years ago of the Texas Enterprise Fund and the Emerging Technology Fund and the additional funding by succeeding legislatures. In addition, special incentives such as the Texas Back to Work program (which provides employers a wage subsidy of up to $2,000 for hiring qualified out-of-work Texans) are proving helpful.
While the past year has not been easy for many Texans, with an overall statewide employment decline, the Lone Star State is likely to be back on track in the months to come. October and November data noted job growth, but the December report indicated some losses. Such setbacks will be with us for a while. However, there are many reasons to expect a return to long-term expansionary patterns, and I project that about 1.25 million new jobs will be created across the state over the next five years.
posted @ 08:10 AM CST [link]