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09/22/2006: "America on the Move"

Since the early pioneers landed on the eastern shores of this continent in the 17th century, the desire to move has always been a part of the American psyche. The advice Horace Greeley gave in an 1865 New York Tribune editorial to “Go West, young man” was basically a reflection of that which was already occurring as the nation was rapidly spreading beyond the Allegheny Mountains and across the Mississippi River.

During the 19th century, it was not uncommon for more than half of a community to change residences over a period of 10 years or so; economics were normally the driving force in these moves. When breadwinners died, farms failed, mines closed, or jobs played out, families would just pick up and move in hopes of making a successful new start elsewhere.

Following World War II, the US became known as a mobile society because approximately 20% of the population moved from one location to another every year. In 1947, 28.70 million Americans moved—more than 20% of the total population. Since that time, the number of residence changes has risen annually due to the nation’s continually expanding population, but the percentage of people moving has actually dropped.

During the decade of the 1990s, an average of 42.71 million people changed homes per year—16% of total US residents. With approximately 40 million movers per year since 2000, the percentage of residence changes has dropped to around 14%. Next week, the US Census Bureau is expected to release a new report that shows more than 39 million Americans changed their address from 2004 to 2005. This represents a slightly smaller proportion of the US population, and the rate is expected to continue to dip slightly over the next few years as moves diminish and population grows.

Moreover, the number of people actually changing communities is much smaller. More than half of the moves being made today are housing related. Some 10% result from a transition from renting to buying a house, and another 20% involve looking for cheaper housing. About a quarter of the residence changes are caused by family needs, including changes in marital status. Only about 16% of the total moves are work-related, but when the move involves a longer distance (from one county to another or to a different state) more than a third of the time the reason is employment.

During the past few years, six out of every 10 movers remained in the same county with about 19% changing states. So, of the approximately 40 million Americans who move, only about 7.5 million of them actually cross a state line. This proportion has been remarkably stable over 60 years.

American moves today, of course, are omni-directional, depending on the circumstances that dictate the change of address. Still, there has been a predominant shift from the North to southern and western states over the past several years. As a result of this pattern (and differences in growth rates in the populations already there), 24 of the current top 25 fastest growing cities with populations over 100,000 are located in California, Florida, Arizona, Texas, and Nevada. And these five states compose over 30% of the total US population. As economic growth in these areas continues, so will the influx.

Apparently, even though Greeley’s advice to “Go West” was given more than 140 years ago, relocating in order to enhance one’s opportunities can still be wise counsel. However, our willingness to pick up and move is not a new phenomenon. It’s not even a trend that’s increasing in any notable way. Yes, we’re a mobile society, but the fact of the matter is that we always have been.

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