06/30/2006: "US and Texas Population Projected to Experience Significant Expansion"
Reports posted this week by the US Census Bureau indicate that the population of our nation is projected to hit the 300 million milestone sometime this fall. When you view US growth over the next quarter century, it appears that we will add more than 70 million people, which represents a gain of almost 25% by 2030 to reach some 370.5 million.
Most of that growth is predicted to be in the southern and western areas of the US, with California, Texas, and Florida contributing almost half. By 2030, the south and west will likely have about 65% of the total US population. Texas, forecast to be among the top five fastest-growing states, is expected to add nearly 12 million residents over the 2005-2030 period.
This expansion will enable Texas to remain the second most populous state in the Union, behind California. Florida, which currently ranks fourth in population, will likely replace New York for the third-place spot by 2011.
The Census Bureau also noted that Texas has four of the 25 fastest growing cities (Fort Worth, Denton, Killeen, and Grand Prairie) along with four of the top 25 cities with the largest numerical increase from July 2004 to July 2005 (San Antonio, Fort Worth, Austin, and El Paso). In addition, three Texas cities rank among the largest in the nation: Houston (4th), San Antonio (7th), and Dallas (9th). In fact, San Antonio leaped past San Diego to claim the 7th slot.
According to the Perryman Long-Term Economic Forecast, which was completed and released last week, the state’s six major metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) will account for approximately 70% of the total population expansion over the years from 2005 to 2030. The smaller MSAs are predicted to generate about 20% of the increase. In 2030, the six major metros are expected to account for about 67.27% of the overall state population, with the smaller MSAs contributing some 20.52%.
Five of Texas’ larger metro areas are predicted to have compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for this timeframe beyond the 1.70% per annum climb of the state as a whole. They include: Austin-Round Rock MSA, 1.82%; Dallas-Plano-Irving Metropolitan Division (MD), 1.82%; San Antonio MSA, 1.81%; Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land MSA, 1.78%; and Fort Worth-Arlington MD, 1.75%.
Of the 20 smaller metro areas, three are anticipated to achieve yearly population gains exceeding that of the state. They are: McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr MSA, 2.25%; Laredo MSA, 2.16%; and Brownsville-Harlingen MSA, 1.86%. All are located along the Texas-Mexico border, and Hispanics are projected to be a major factor in the population expansion.
With the exception of the El Paso MSA, all the major metros are likely to have a larger percentage of the overall state population in 2030 compared to 2005. The metros and the forecast percentages of the state’s total residents in 2030 are: Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, 23.47%; Dallas-Plano-Irving, 17.48%; Fort Worth-Arlington, 8.48%; San Antonio, 8.34%; Austin-Round Rock, 6.42%; and El Paso, 3.07%.
Only three of the 20 smaller metros are expected to experience a percentage hike from 2005 to 2030. The MSAs and the projected percentages of the aggregate state population in 2030 are: McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr, 3.33%; Brownsville-Harlingen, 1.71%; and Laredo, 1.09%.
Currently across the US, about one out of nearly every seven persons is ethnically Hispanic. In Texas, the ratio is approximately one out of every three people. Nearly two-thirds of Hispanic-origin people in the US are of Mexican background.
As Texas and the United States look toward the future, it is evident that the projected expansion of the Hispanic population will have significant economic, political, and cultural impacts.