Recent announcements indicate that Texas employers added nearly 125,000 wage and salary jobs during the past 12 months. December was the sixth consecutive month of job increases in the Lone Star State. These advancements should continue over the next few years, with all industrial sectors projected to see moderate gains in the number of workers. Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from 2004 to 2009 for the various sectors range from 2.55% in Services to 0.66% in Mining.
During the short term, the Services sector is expected to continue to play a highly important role in the state’s economic health. Last year, Services generated 19.10% of the aggregate amount of Texas real gross product (RGP or output). This level of contribution is projected to remain stable through the next five years, with Services sector output growth forecast at 4.17% per year.
Over that timeframe, some 412,500 workers are projected to be added to the sector, raising the Services job total to approximately 3.49 million or about 31.57% of the overall employment across the state. The yearly increase from 2004 to 2009 is predicted to be 2.55%.
By 2009, the number of jobs in the Trade sector is anticipated to grow by nearly 243,600, which reflects a compound annual expansion rate of 2.05%. Of the total employment in the state in 2009, Trade should account for some 22.87% with about 2.53 million workers. Wholesale and retail trade will likely generate 18.95% of the aggregate Texas RGP that year.
The Government sector is forecast to also have a significant impact on jobs across the state over the next five years, with an addition of approximately 127,800 workers. The total number in this sector in 2009 will probably be about 1.93 million, accounting for 17.44% of overall employment in Texas. The 2004-2009 employment CAGR for this industry is anticipated to be 1.38%. During the five-year timeframe, the Government sector should produce 10.30% of the state’s total output.
From 2004 to 2009, the projected employment gains for the other industrial sectors are: Transportation, Communications, and Utilities, 59,610; Construction, 58,060; Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, 45,210; Durable Manufacturing, 43,810; Nondurable Manufacturing, 19,960; Agriculture, 7,660; and Mining, 4,960.
Anticipated employment per annum growth rates for these sectors over the five years are: Transportation, Communications, and Utilities, 2.12%; Construction, 1.83%; Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, 1.63%; Durable Manufacturing, 1.53%; Agriculture, 1.08%; Nondurable Manufacturing, 1.05%; and Mining, 0.66%.
The expected percentages of the total number of jobs in Texas to be represented by these sectors in 2009 are forecast to be: Construction, 5.75%; Durable Manufacturing, 5.44%; Transportation, Communications, and Utilities, 5.42%; Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, 5.26%; Nondurable Manufacturing, 3.56%; Mining, 1.38%; and Agriculture, 1.33%.
Over the next five years, job growth in Texas is projected to be broad-based, with moderate increases in all industrial sectors. The future is challenging, but it is also fraught with opportunities.