01/07/2005: "Texas Regions to Experience Positive Growth Over Short Term"
During the past five years, the economies of Texas’ 13 regions have been relatively healthy, with most areas seeing modest gains in key indicators such as population, employment, real gross product (RGP or output), retail sales, and real personal income. The next five years should see noteworthy improvement in all categories.
The 13 economic regions, realigned from 11 in 2002 by the State Comptroller’s Office, encompass all 254 Texas counties. Their geographic size and population density vary greatly. The Capital Region has the smallest land area, and ranks 3rd highest among the regions in terms of people per square mile. The West Texas Region is the largest geographically; the Metroplex Region has the greatest population density. The number of counties in the various regions ranges from 6 in the Upper Rio Grande Region to 41 in the High Plains Region.
From 1999 to 2004, the Capital Region had the fastest growth in population in the state with a 3.16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The per annum expansion rates for the other 12 regions ranged from 0.11% (West Texas) to 2.42% (South Texas). The region with the highest number of additional residents over the five-year period was the Metroplex, with approximately 672,800.
During the years from 2004 to 2009, the Metroplex Region is projected to again experience the largest increase in population, with an addition of more than 631,600 people. The Capital Region is forecast to achieve the highest CAGR in population over the five-year timeframe. The annual population hike among all regions is expected to range from 1.06% to 2.30%.
The regions’ yearly gains in wage and salary workers from 1999 to 2004 varied from -0.02% for Northwest Texas to 2.56% for South Texas. The greatest number of new jobs created during that timeframe was in the Gulf Coast Region, with some 92,600.
Over the next five years, while the Metroplex and Gulf Coast regions are predicted to experience the largest increases in the number of workers, the region with the highest per annum employment hike is expected to be the Capital Region. The 2004-2009 compound annual growth rates for the 13 regions in the state are forecast to range from 1.67% to 2.16%.
Leading industrial sectors in terms of percentage of aggregate Texas workers in 2009 are projected to be services, wholesale and retail trade, and government. These industries should account for about three-quarters of the total number of workers in most of the regions across the state.
During the period from 1999 to 2004, two regions experienced real gross product increases of more than 3.00%, and six others achieved RGP growth beyond 2.00%. Over the next five years, all regions are anticipated to see per annum expansion greater than 3.67%, with four having above 4.00% annual output gains. Both the Capital and Metroplex regions should exceed the state RGP annual growth rate of 4.15%. These regions will also likely top the state retail sales and real personal income by place of residence annual increases.
The services, wholesale and retail trade, and government industries are expected to be among the major economic generators in all regions over the five-year forecast horizon. The finance, insurance, and real estate and durable manufacturing sectors will also be key economic contributors in more than half of the regions.
Every region is poised to help boost the state economy over the next five years. Those encompassing the major metropolitan statistical areas will likely make the most substantial contributions.