06/25/2004: "Metros to be Major Contributors to State’s Long-Term Economic Prosperity"
Over the long term (2003 to 2030), Texas is projected to experience substantial economic growth. The 58 counties in the 27 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), which constitute about 85% of the current population, are expected to be the backbone of this advancement. Below is a brief summary of our current outlook for these dynamic urban centers.
Through the 27-year forecast timeframe, the six major metro areas—Austin-San Marcos, Dallas, El Paso, Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston, and San Antonio—are likely to accumulate approximately 72% of the 12.34 million population increase anticipated for Texas. The 21 smaller MSAs are predicted to contribute about 20% to the state’s total growth. The remainder will be spread across the other 196 Texas counties.
During the years from 2003 to 2030, the Houston metro area is expected to add over 2.7 million persons to reach 7.2 million, a 62% hike. The Dallas metro population of almost 3.8 million in 2003 should see an additional 2.5 million people in 2030, reflecting a near 67% gain.
The five-county Austin-San Marcos MSA is expected to experience a population expansion of some 1.1 million and approach 2.5 million in 2030, an 82% climb and the highest percentage increase of the six major metro areas. The lowest growth percentage will likely be seen in the one-county El Paso metro, with less than 44%. This percentage reflects an addition of some 312,000 to the 712,250 current residents.
The San Antonio metro area, incorporating four counties, is forecast to climb 59%, from almost 1.7 million in 2003 to near 2.7 million by 2030. The four counties that compose the Fort Worth-Arlington MSA are predicted to see population growth of nearly 1.2 million and exceed 3.0 million in 2030. This gain represents approximately a 65% increase.
The projected percentages of the total state population that the six larger MSAs will have in 2030 are: Houston, 21%; Dallas, 18%; Fort Worth-Arlington, 9%; San Antonio, 8%; Austin-San Marcos, 7%; and El Paso, 3%.
The combined Houston and Dallas metros, where four out of every ten Texans are expected to reside in 2030, will likely contribute some 54% of the state’s total real gross product (RGP or output) that year.
The Austin and Fort Worth-Arlington metro areas are forecast to run a close race for third in total output among the major metros, each producing about 8% of Texas RGP in 2030. The San Antonio MSA is projected is provide 7% of the state’s output in 2030 with the El Paso metro generating 2%.
The number of wage and salary workers in Texas is predicted to climb approximately 5.42 million during the 2003-2030 period. Some 72% of this employment gain should be in the six major MSAs, while 20% is anticipated to be in the other 21 metro areas. In 2030, the Houston and Dallas MSAs together are anticipated to account for slightly less than 43% of all wage and salary jobs in the state.
Much of the long-term economic expansion projected for the Lone Star State will be attributable to a favorable mix of emerging industries and fruitful efforts to attract quality corporate locations as well as population growth, enhancement of skilled laborers, and relatively low business and housing costs. The state’s MSAs are expected to play leading roles in all these matters and be the major source of future vitality of Texas.