During the course of our recent forecasting effort, I spent some time looking at growth patterns among cities in the Lone Star State. The past decade was one of strong economic performance and we enticed many companies—and therefore employees and their families—to move this way. We also experienced marked increases in some areas as a result of higher-than-average fertility rates—in other words, larger families—and a relatively young population.
In a nutshell, the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs—generally a sizable core city and the surrounding counties) are growing ever more dominant in terms of their proportion of the state’s population. The smaller metro areas are also generally increasing at a steady pace, with some regions such as the border expanding at a more rapid clip. Here’s a look at a few key trends in where we live.
From 1992 to 2002, the population of Texas grew by almost four million persons to reach 21.7 million. This overall growth pace of just over 2.0% per year was exceeded by many areas within the state, although other regions remained virtually unchanged. (All growth rates here are compound annual growth rates—meaning they reflect changes in the size of the base from which growth is calculated—unless otherwise noted.)
As of 2002, about two-thirds of all Texans lived in the state’s six largest metro areas (Austin-San Marcos, Dallas, Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, and San Antonio). These areas were responsible for about 71.7% of the population gain since 1992. The state’s 21 other metro areas, where 22.7% of Texans resided in 2002, contributed another 18.53% to the total expansion over the decade.
The annual growth rates and the number of people added in the metro areas during the 1992-2002 decade varied from less than 1% to almost 4%. The slowest changes were generally concentrated in the mid-sized metro areas such as Abilene, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Odessa-Midland, and San Angelo; many of these areas were hampered by weakness in the petroleum and refining segments of their economies. The most rapid growth rates occurred in one of two basic categories of places: the large cities with a heavy technology component to their economies (Austin-San Marcos and Dallas) or the border region (Laredo and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission).
Looking at the total number of additional residents instead of growth rates, the largest gains were naturally in the largest cities. Dallas experienced a gain of 870,000 persons, while Houston added 832,700 during the 1992-2002 period. At the other end of the spectrum, Abilene, Odessa-Midland, San Angelo, Texarkana, and Victoria changed by fewer than 10,000 residents over the ten-year span.
In the future, Texans will likely continue to gravitate to the six major metro areas during the next three decades. Houston and Dallas alone will be home to more than 39.7% of Lone Star State residents.
Following the patterns of the recent past, the largest MSAs are forecast to contribute the lion’s share of population growth in the decades to come, accounting for almost three-fourths of the total gain. Austin-San Marcos is expected to lead the growth pace with 2.2% per annum expansion; El Paso’s 1.2% annual clip represents the slowest rate of change. The other large metro areas fall in the 1.6%-1.9% range.
Approximately 21.4% of Texas’ population is likely to live in the state’s 21 other metro areas in 2030. Growth in these areas is expected to range from 0.6% to above 2.1% per annum over the 28-year timeframe. As with the past decade, the border region is projected to see faster-than-average growth. Moderate population expansion is forecast for a number of smaller cities offering economic opportunities for new residents.
In the decades to come, the Texas population will continue to move toward a metropolitan emphasis, with the largest cities leading the way. Some areas will face challenges in providing sufficient infrastructure, particularly education, for their burgeoning populations. Others will struggle to channel economic development in the direction of increasing desirable job growth or face losing ground. The largest MSAs are forecast to continue to serve as the economic (and, thus, population) growth engines of the future.
While rural Texas is certainly a vital part of the state economy, future generations are expected to continue to migrate toward the metropolitan areas. The educational, cultural, social, and career opportunities available in the cities will draw not only young Texans, but also those from around the nation and, in fact, the world.